Monday, April 21, 2008

Pennsylvania Prognostication

For all of you PA primary watchers, it is time for Obama supporters to regain a little perspective. Over the last couple of weeks, polls have shown the race tightening in PA. No surprise there. But, I suspect many of you are now laboring under unrealistic fantasies that Obama will yet pull off the full upset. Let me be clear, that is highly unlikely. Again, that is highly unlikely... and wholly unnecessary for the Obama campaign. Obama has been parked at around 40-44% for some time. His numbers don't budge. So, it appears he has his ceiling in PA. But, remember, the baseline for Clinton was 19-20 points after the last round of elections. She needs a blowout of 20 or higher to even get back in fighting distance to Obama... and even then she'd still need blowouts in every other remaining contest to have a shot at drawing even in pledged delegates. It ain't happening...

So, what do I expect tomorrow:

Worst case scenario: If Clinton wins by 15-20 or more, that will spell trouble for Obama, but this is highly unlikely. And, even if that happens, it still doesn't do much for Hillary in terms of the math. It will be a bigger PR nightmare for Obama than anything...

Best case scenario: Realistically, while I'd love to see Obama pull off the upset, I think if he keeps it between 4-8 points it is a huge "win" for his campaign and ends the whole thing, albeit in a few weeks after Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina.

Here is what I expect: Clinton wins by 8-12 points (I suspect it is right around 10 points) and trudges onward for the next few rounds. Yes, it will be torturous but it is what it is...

Time is on Obama's side. By June 3, or shortly thereafter, he will be the nominee. So, sit tight, batten down the hatches and enjoy what is sure to be a bumpy landing...

If you are still fretting, Obama fan, here is a good breakdown of the only path Hillary has to the nomination:

What's your prediction?


  1. Obama IS going to pull this off, even with a loss tomorrow. . . I AM KEEPING THE FAITH!

  2. Anon: OK. I'm not sure we disagree. If by "pulling it off," you mean he will not lose by 15-20 points, I think you are probably right. This will "end it" in terms of the math, which has really already been "ended" for some time now anyway.

    Apparently Clinton internal polling data has her winning by 11 points tomorrow. That is right in line with my prediction...

    Really, right now, we are marching to June 3rd, so keep tomorrow in perspective. Keep your eye on that June 3rd prize. That is when there are officially no more tomorrows for the Clinton campaign.