Wednesday, April 23, 2008

The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

No, the sky is not falling. For those of you who are sweating Obama's 9 point loss in Pennsylvania yesterday, turn off the squawking boxes and think rationally about this. Yes, Clinton got just enough to stay in it for another round or two. Did you ever really think she'd go away? The result we got was the one we expected. But all the math remains severely stacked against her. She needs to win 70%+ of the remaining pledged delegates to catch Obama. It ain't happening. There is an incredibly long shot that she might catch Obama in the popular vote, IF the Florida and Michigan votes get counted as is. Even so, that is pretty unlikely, too. But, it really doesn't matter because the rules state that the delegates are the key number. Hillary is also having increasing money problems, which is like having a slow, inexorable tire leak. Last, Obama is going to absolutely crush Clinton in North Carolina and he is going to either win Indiana outright, or be right there in second place. Either way, it is all but over for Clinton... but even then I suspect she'll stay in through June 3rd.

So, yes, it would have been nice for Obama to rally and win PA, but that was never really in the cards. He cut a 25 point deficit to 9 points in 6 weeks. Not bad. He is flush with cash to keep running a strong campaign in the remaining states. Even better. He is going to be the nominee... it is just going to take a little while longer. Great!

Again, don't worry too much. The sky is not falling.
(click to enlarge Tom Tomorrow comic)

No comments:

Post a Comment